A recent article in City A.M. covering the Cardano aspiration for a billion users within 10 years caught our eye. A billion users, that’s a big number right?
At the moment Cardano has about 1 million users based on active wallet data. So to hit a billion over 10 years requires a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of about 99%. That is, the number of users needs to double each year.
But this is actually a pretty conservative projection if the current growth rate to a million users is maintained. The project has gone from zero to a million in less than four years which is a CAGR of 3,062%.
So even if we allow that the rate will drop off in the coming years (due to an ‘S’ curve adoption profile which most technology follows), our prediction is that we will actually hit a billion users much faster.
Allowing for a relatively modest CAGR of 300% would see Cardano hit a billion in 5 years, or the middle of 2026.
Article available here.